8月24日(金)マーケットレポート

みなさんおはようございます(^^♪
今週も週末金曜日のマーケットレポートをお届け致します。
それではよろしくお願いします!
8月24日9 時28分 現在の相場を見ています。
マーケットレポート
現在レート 111.379
フレームワーク
【相場の方向性】
日足 下目線から上へ
4H  上
1H     上
15M 上
直近のフェーズ
トレンドフェーズ
【現在エントリーした時のロスカットポイント】
buyの場合
・直前安値にバッファ111.304
・朝方のレンジ水準。直前々安値にバッファ 111.197
sellの場合
・直前天井バッファ111.440
・1Hベース前回天井、日足前回高値に余裕を持たせた上 111.550
【ターゲット目安】
buyの場合
・直前高値ブレイクを利用した利食い 111.440
・エントリーから10pips程度で利食い
・ホールド
sellの場合
・朝方のレンジ水準。直前々安値の少し上 111.230
・pivot、1Hベース25MA収縮のポイント 111.080
・ホールド、4Hベースの25MAの収縮のポイント。ストキャスの買われ過ぎ水準が、売られ過ぎの水準に達した程度の目安
注目材料
21:30   USD コア耐久財受注 (前月比) (7月) 0.5% 0.2%
21:30   USD 耐久財受注 (前月比) (7月) -0.5% 0.8%
21:30   USD 軍事費を除いた耐久財 (前月比) (7月) 0.8% 1.3%
21:30   USD コア資本財受注(非国防、航空機を除く) (前月比) (7月) 0.4% 0.2%
未定   USD アメリカ ジャクソンホール シンポジウム   
23:00   USD FRBパウエル議長発言 


オプション情報
112.00円 売り、OP27日NYカット
111.60-80円 断続的に売り
111.40-50円 断続的に売り・超えるとストップロス買い
111.29円 8/23 6:00現在(8/23 高値111.32円 - 安値110.52円)
110.70円 買い
一言
今週のドル円は月曜を除き結果的に4連騰で強い上昇となった。 先週の日足ベースの流れでは切り下げていたので、11.437の前回高値を破らない限りは、
依然として大局の流れは下目線でみていた。しかしながら今週の上昇で一旦フェーズを変えた。この上昇の強さをみて必ずフェーズを分けて考える必要がある。
少なくとも日足ベースの流れは今週の上昇が前回高値をブレイクした事から下目線から上への方向感を読み取る必要がある。
109.750の日足ベースの前回安値を大底にして、一旦下がっても切り上げて上に向かう可能性が大局の流れとして大いにある。
以上を踏まえた上で直近の時間を見ていくと現在大底から1.6円の上昇。明らかな上昇トレンド。こうなった場合、各テクニカル指標が行き過ぎ感を表しても全く機能しない。
セオリー通り基本は順張りで買い目線。しかし今から買うのであれば、もちろん大きくみたらトレンドに遅れて入っている事を忘れてはいけない。なので利食いは欲張らず短め。
10pips程度で十分。トレンドが続くかぎり明確な意味のあるロスカットの近くで押し目やレンジの有利な位置で入ってTPは短め。
基本はトレンドが続く限り上目線でレンジや明確な前回安値をブレイクしたところで初めて一旦の下落転換を疑うくらいで良いだろう。その時は果敢にショートで入りたい。
利食いの目安はpivot 、1Hベース25MAの収斂のポイント。もう一つ伸ばすなら4Hベースの25MAのポイント。大局の流れは上なので利食いの目途はしっかり決めたショートでいいと思う。
いずれにせよ今は明らかなトレンドなので基本は有利な位置でロング、TP短めの繰り返し。ブレイクを起こしたら下目線。大局の流れは上。
以上です。
これをもとに取引をしても余計な先入観が入ってしまいますので、あくまで相場に対しての見方の参考にお使いください。トレードを終えてから見て復習にお使いしてもいいかもしれません
※最終的には常にご自身の頭で考えて、トレードを重ねていく方が皆様の上達にプラスになるかと思います。各自が有効に本レポートをお使いいただければ幸いです。
過去のマーケットレポートはサイト内にもupしてますので、こちらからご覧ください。→http://traders-web.club/マーケットレポート/

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