8月17日(金)マーケットレポート

みなさん、おはようございます!
今日は週末金曜の東証前の相場を見ています。
それでは本日もよろしくお願いします(^^♪
8月17日 8時36分 現在の相場を見ています。
マーケットレポート
現在レート 110.956
フレームワーク
【相場の方向性】
日足 下
4H  上
1H     上
15M 上
直近のフェーズ
レンジ、乱高下フェーズ
【現在エントリーした時のロスカットポイント】
buyの場合
・直前安値 110.758
・直前前安値 110.686
・大底110.448
sellの場合
・直前高値110.109にバッファ少し上
・1Hベース直近天井110.450の少し上
【ターゲット目安】
buyの場合
・直前高値の少し下 110.050程度
・直前高値更新のブレイクアウトの値動きを利用した利食い 111.109~111.150。 R1付近
・天井の少し下 111.245~111.450or安値を切り上げてホールド
sellの場合
・直前安値の少し上 110.800 pivot 近辺
・s1の少し上。 昨日の夜の強い下落で付けた安値 の少し上 110.600
・大底の少し上110.530
注目材料
23:00 Us

アメリカ・景気先行指数

Star fillStar fillStar emptyStar emptyStar empty -10.7pips 0.5% 0.4%
23:00 Us

アメリカ・ミシガン大学消費者信頼感指数(速報値)

Star fillStar fillStar fillStar fillStar empty +0.4pips 97.9 98.0

オプション情報

111.50-90円 断続的に売り
111.20-30円 断続的に売り
111.00円 OP20日NYカット
110.90円 8/17 6:00現在(8/16高値111.12円 - 安値110.46円)
110.50円 買い、OP17日NYカット大きめ
110.40円 買い・割り込むとストップロス売り
一言
昨日のドル円は午前から欧州タイムで上昇し、NYの午前は一旦下げて大底の重要な節目はしっかり切り上げて急騰。昨日のNYダウ、S&P,欧州の市場も堅調で上昇。昨今のトルコリラも一旦下落局面が終えて反発した。
大局の流れを見ると日足ベースでは依然として下の方向しかしそれ以下の時間軸は全て上に向きつつある。日足の値動きの型を見ると直前天井の113.174から一回切り下げて25MAの下で現在推移している。なのでやはり基本的にはこの日足の直前高値の112.142をブレイクしない限りは下目線が正しいだろう。上昇に目線に変えるのは上昇の反発の戻しがどの程度くるか次第で変えるくらいで問題ないので基本的にはまだ下目線。天井113.174から112.142の直前高値を結んだトレンドラインが一つの抵抗になる。
以上を踏まえた上で見ていくと直近の15M足は上。基本は直近のトレンドをフォローするのでやはり現在は上目線で入るのがシナリただ今すぐ入るのではなく一旦下がった押し目で必ず入る事。
今は待つのが正解。上昇の抵抗の目安は直前の天井111.109.pivot のR1付近。
ちょうどR1付近の111.165辺りが日足ベースの 天井113.174から112.142の直前高値を結んだトレンドラインの抵抗水準にあるのでそれまでは上昇をみてもいいと思う。
いずれにせよ基本は直近の値動きに従ってロング目線日足の節目に近付く辺りで少し逆のシナリオを疑いつつ直近のトレンドにフォローする程度がちょうどいい。
今のところ有利な位置ではいれるまで待つ。押し目がきたらロングが無難なシナリオとなる
以上です。
これをもとに取引をしても余計な先入観が入ってしまいますので、あくまで相場に対しての見方の参考にお使いください。トレードを終えてから見て復習にお使いしてもいいかもしれません
※最終的には常にご自身の頭で考えて、トレードを重ねていく方が皆様の上達にプラスになるかと思います。各自が有効に本レポートをお使いいただければ幸いです。
過去のマーケットレポートはサイト内にもupしてますので、こちらからご覧ください。→http://traders-web.club/マーケットレポート/

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